This year's end, the Pu'er tea market is unusually lively. Even before the winter solstice, many tea merchants are already driving SUVs with large amounts of cash to Yunnan tea farmers to reserve next year's spring tea. Rumors such as "Spring tea prices increased by over 30%" and "Prices will rise even more when spring tea is actually harvested" are circulating. Regarding this, the author has just two words: suicidal.
Throughout 2013, the ancient tree tea market for Pu'er has been particularly hot. Sales increased by over 200% compared to 2012. Precisely because of this market fervor, many tea merchants, blinded by profits and afraid of competitors snatching ancient tree tea resources, have frantically raised prices to purchase tea. It seems everyone has forgotten the most fundamental rule of Pu'er tea: it improves with age.
Take Old Ban Zhang as an example. If next year's spring tea, as rumored, reaches about 8,000 RMB per kilogram for raw tea, that means the average cost of raw materials, labor, and logistics for producing one cake of pure Old Ban Zhang Pu'er tea would exceed 2,000 RMB. Generally, production costs only account for about one-third of the final selling price. If tea merchants want to sell pure Old Ban Zhang, one cake would have to be priced over 6,000 RMB.
Many might see this as not a problem, as in 2013, several brands' pure Old Ban Zhang single cakes already exceeded 6,000 RMB. However, back in 2009, 2010, and 2011, Chen Sheng Hao and Fu Jin's Old Ban Zhang single cakes were only a few hundred RMB. Most of these have not been consumed yet and are still quietly stored in collectors' warehouses.
Most people are slaves to money, and tea collectors are no exception. If next year Old Ban Zhang raw tea approaches the high of 8,000 RMB/kg, the vast majority of collectors who bought large quantities in previous years will likely sell. (A potential market surplus of over 1000% is tempting for anyone). On one side, new tea from the current year costs over 6,000 RMB per cake; on the other, medium-aged tea that has been aging for years might cost less than 6,000 RMB. Both are pure Old Ban Zhang. Which one do you think the market will choose?
How merchants purchase tea is their business. The market recognition of ancient tree tea is a good thing. The value回归 of ancient tree tea also conforms to market rules. However, reckless speculation ultimately harms the speculators and those left holding the bag. Allowing tea to appreciate steadily with age and enabling tea farmers to benefit gradually according to market trends is the way to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the Pu'er tea market.