Rumors suggest that in 2014, the price of Laobanzhao raw material will exceed 8,000 yuan per kilogram. Since 2009, the price has almost doubled every year. What about other mountain regions or small production areas? According to conservative estimates, Bingdao will become the first region with prices surpassing 10,000 yuan per kilogram in 2014. Other famous regions like Xigui in Lincang, Yiwu in Xishuangbanna, and Jingmai Mountain in Pu'er will also experience significant price increases. In 2014, ancient tree tea will be in short supply.

Industry insiders know that capital favors ancient tree tea, which is why its price is soaring. Looking back at history, we find that in 2007, ancient tree tea did not hold the same prestigious status as it does today. At that time, capital was not particularly focused on ancient tree tea but rather on炒作 historical famous brands like Dayi, Xiaguan, and Zhongcha. So why is capital now fixated on ancient tree tea? There are several reasons:

1. The炒作 space for famous brands is shrinking. After the significant crash of Pu'er tea in May 2007, some capital was trapped in "famous" brands, and a considerable portion remains locked in to this day. A simple analysis shows that the average price of Pu'er tea raw materials in 2007 soared to over 60 yuan per kilogram. Seven years later, in 2013, the price of Pu'er tea raw materials has not yet reached the 2007 level. Thus, the trapped capital does not have the conditions to be released. Capital is wary of brands because they can be produced in unlimited quantities.

2. The drinking value of ancient tree tea has been discovered. Initially, it was small and medium-sized enterprises and workshops that discovered the value of ancient tree tea and promoted it relentlessly. They focused on specific regions of ancient tree tea, creating refined and personalized products. The unique quality of ancient tree tea has been widely recognized, providing a quality guarantee for its high price.

3. Scarcity of resources. This is the most important point. The primary factor capital values is the relatively controllable product quantity. Ancient tree tea fits this characteristic perfectly. The ancient tree tea from Laobanzhao produces about 30-40 tons annually, while Bingdao's ancient tree tea, harvested three times a year, yields only 7-8 tons of tea leaves. It does not require massive capital to relatively control the supply.

4. Ancient tree tea has distinct quality characteristics, possessing all the features needed for炒作. Due to differences in climate, soil, altitude, variety, and tree age, ancient tree tea exhibits rich and diverse personalized traits. These characteristics are favored by capital, as they can quickly create scarcity for a particular type of tea, thereby achieving significant price increases.

We believe that speculation is a double-edged sword. It can bring benefits to capital but can also entangle many participants in trouble. No commodity's price rises forever, and in the game of "passing the parcel," some people will inevitably end up with the hot potato. When you become the one holding it, merely performing a show will not be enough.